Wednesday night Sean Hannity accused the governor of Georgia of being “ineffective.”
But ineffective at what?
Ineffective at helping the Republican party address suspected election fraud in the 2020 elections then again in the Georgia 2020 Special Senate Election.
Kemp ran afoul of President Trump in 2020 when he certified Georgia’s presidential election results in November following a state recount. Many conservatives including Trump contend that the voting process in the Peach State was rife with fraud and that Kemp rolled over and handed the state to Biden without a searching fight.
Weeks after the 2020 election, Trump ripped Kemp, saying he was “ashamed” to have endorsed him and that he’s “done absolutely nothing” to advance the Republican claim of election fraud in the state.
And Trump continued his attacks on the governor, claiming “I made the mistake” of endorsing Kemp for his election bid against Abrams in 2018.
“I said Brian you know you have a big election integrity problem in Georgia,” Trump said. “I hope you can help us out and call a special election and let’s get to the bottom of it for the good of the country, for the good of the state of Georgia.”
Or could this be a simple case of Hannity carrying Trump’s water, by amplifying Trump’s statement?
But there may be more to it. Trump has much at stake in Georgia next year and having Kemp in the mix increases the risk considerably.
“Kemp has been very ineffective as a governor and frankly for the sake of the state Georgia I think he should probably bow out of the race,” Hannity says, adding that if Kemp stays in “that would also hurt Herschel Walker” in his Senate bid. #gapol pic.twitter.com/TkVHo5kWxJ
— Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) December 2, 2021
What Hannity is likely saying is that Georgia Republicans would best be served by a strong conservative in the governor’s race and then look for some Glenn Youngkin type to challenge Raphael Warnock for Senate.
A Youngkin-esque candidate might be able to undo the Democrats’ gains in Georgia’s suburbs while consolidating the MAGA vote. The task for Republicans should be easier in Georgia, which Biden won by a hair, than it was in Virginia, which he won by 10 points.
Trump has a vendetta against Kemp and has thrown has support behind MAGA loyalist Herschel Walker in the Senate race, making him a prohibitive favorite for the nomination. Trump may also yet succeed in luring David Perdue or some other challenger into a primary against Kemp.
If Kemp can be pressured into quitting, that would give the party almost a full year to unite behind some new nominee — probably Perdue — which would in turn reduce the chances of bitterness keeping some Republican voters home next fall. But at present Kemp doesn’t seem inclined to retire.
Kemp could never have envisioned himself in this bind. He planned to share the 2022 ticket with U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler, his hand-picked choice for an open seat, to make a stronger appeal to suburban white women who had spurned the party in droves…
Kemp is taking the threats seriously. He has reloaded his campaign coffers, sharpened his reelection platform and unveiled volleys of endorsements. The Republican Governors Association has pledged its support. His campaign recently returned to the airwaves with a TV ad touting his agenda.
And he’s calling in favors. The Georgia Chamber, which declined to support Kemp in 2018, endorsed his reelection bid this week. That development was seen in political circles as a signal to both Perdue and Abrams about where the corporate crowd is leaning.
Charlie Baker, the centrist Republican governor of Massachusetts, announced yesterday that he won’t run for a third term despite having one of the highest approval ratings in the country. One factor in that decision, I assume, was that Trump had already endorsed a primary challenger, raising the possibility of Baker being humiliated in a primary.
If the party is divided after the primary, the prospect of Abrams becoming governor will help the Republican party to unite next fall.
But if Kemp survives the primary and faces Abrams in a rematch, it’s [hard] to imagine Trump laying aside his grudges and endorsing him in the name of defeating Abrams.
If he withholds his endorsement and Abrams defeats Kemp, that’s the nightmare scenario.
