Syrian rebels declared President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster after seizing control of Damascus on Sunday, ending his family’s iron-fisted rule after more than 13 years of civil war in a seismic moment for the Middle East.
The Islamist rebels also dealt a major blow to the influence of Russia and Iran in the region, key allies who propped up Assad during critical moments in the civil war.
This from frontpagemag.com.
Sometimes revolutions and uprisings play out as extended battles. Other times the collapse is near instantaneous because the army simply will not fight.
This is exactly what happened during the original ISIS onslaught, the fall of Afghanistan, and now the fall of Syria.
Regime loyalists insist the Syrian army was bought off. Perhaps the Turks and whatever other interests were behind this ‘uprising’ spread some money around.
But more likely there was not much of a Syrian army left.
The Syrian army had been notorious for its cruelty and ruthlessness. While the Egyptians had larger troop numbers and the Jordanians had better professionalism, Israeli soldiers of a certain era tended to remember the viciousness of the Syrians.
The Assad family had withstood multiple Sunni Islamist rebellions through sheer brutality. But by 2024, there was not much of that army left.
The Syrian Civil War had turned Syria into a puppet regime controlled by Iran and Russia. Neither side wanted much of a Syrian military.
Assad Jr was, like many nepo baby dictators in the region, a weak leader with no real idea of how to rebuild Syria. Hezbollah and the Russians had saved him during the civil war. But it took a lot of bleeding to do it. And after Hezbollah’s war with Israel, it lacked the momentum or manpower to do it. Iran seemed hesitant and indecisive. And the Russians tried to bring some airpower in but not enough to make a significant difference.
Trump may have been the X factor hanging over this as well. While he indicated that he didn’t want America involved in the civil war, some of the pro-Assad players may have hesitated to get involved in a long-term conflict with an unpredictable administration coming into office.
Either way, the Assad family seems to be done. What happens to Syria may however prove more complicated. Post-fall, Syria is likely to follow demographic trends and that means the Alawite minority isn’t likely to run the place ever again.
But there will be multiple factions in play.
Turkey would love to dominate Syria, but right now every state in the region is likely to back different factions and Istanbul is more obsessed with wiping out the Kurds than trying to herd all the goats.
Some sort of coalition may form or it may devolve into a full-on civil war or quite possibly some combination of the two.
The one thing the Middle East isn’t known for is stability.
Chaos is the one thing you can bet on in the Middle East.
Syria’s rebel forces claim to have entered Damascus, and a source familiar with the advance has stated that operatives are taking up key positions in the capital. “Militarily, Damascus has fallen,” the source said, after the rebel alliance swept across the country in a lightning offensive.
According to a source familiar with the rebels’ operations:
An active search is underway for Bashar al-Assad with rebels questioning Syrian military officers and intelligence officials who might have knowledge about his movements.
Rebel forces declared Damascus “free” on Sunday, claiming Assad had fled the capital.
The Syrian leader has not been seen or heard from publicly since rebels entered the capital early on Sunday morning.
UPDATE:
Russian media reported that deposed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad and his family are in Moscow and have been granted political asylum:
According to the source in the Kremlin, Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow. Being guided by humanitarian considerations, Russia has granted asylum for them.
‘Russia has always spoken in favor of a political settlement of the Syrian crisis. We insist that the UN-mediated talks be resumed,’ the source said.
‘Russian officials are in touch with representatives of armed Syrian opposition, whose leaders have guaranteed security of Russian military bases and diplomatic missions on the Syrian territory,’ the source added.
UPDATE:
The New York Times reported that Israeli ground forces have entered Syria for the first time since the 1973 war to take control of area they see as vital for defending Israel.
The report:
Israeli ground forces advanced beyond the demilitarized zone on the Israel-Syria border over the weekend, marking their first overt entry into Syrian territory since the 1973 October War, according to two Israeli officials speaking anonymously to discuss sensitive developments.
The Israeli deployment came amid a successful push by rebel groups in Syria to drive President Bashar al-Assad out of power and out of the country, prompting neighboring states to brace for more regional instability created by his sudden fall and flight.
Israeli forces took control of the mountain summit of Mount Hermon on the Syrian side of the border, as well as several other locations deemed essential for stabilizing control of the area.
Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, the Israeli military chief of staff, appeared to confirm on Saturday night that Israeli forces had gone beyond a demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights, saying Israel had ‘deployed troops into Syrian territory,’ although he did not elaborate further.
Netanyahu stated this move into Syria is not supposed to be permanent:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel announced on Sunday he had ordered troops to ‘take over the buffer zone’ between Israel and Syria and said Israeli forces had taken up military posts abandoned by Syrian troops, without specifying whether they had entered Syrian territory.
‘We gave the Israeli army the order to take over these positions to ensure that no hostile force embeds itself right next to the border of Israel,’ Mr. Netanyahu said. ‘This is a temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found.’
Avichay Adraee, an Israeli military spokesman, on Sunday announced a curfew in five Syrian villages in the buffer zone, ordering residents to remain home ‘until further notice.’
The Israeli military said it was ‘not interfering with the internal events in Syria.’ But it added that its forces would ‘continue to operate as long as necessary in order to preserve the buffer zone and defend Israel and its civilians.’
In related news, the Times pointed out that Israel has also been bombing chemical weapon and government targets in Syria to keep them from falling into the hands of these rebels:
The Israeli Air Force over the weekend was also striking targets in Syria to destroy government military assets that could fall into the hands of rebel forces and are considered strategic threats by Israel, the two officials said.
These Syrian military assets had posed a risk to Israel previously, one that could now be exacerbated by extremist elements among the rebels who could seize control and use them against Israel, the officials said.
The targets included small stockpiles of chemical weapons, primarily mustard gas and VX gas, which remained in Syrian possession despite prior agreements to disarm, according to the officials. The Israeli military also targeted radar-equipped batteries and vehicles of Russian-made air defense missiles, as well as stockpiles of Scud missiles, according to the two officials.
